Mitch Newman's Rating System
In college I had one particular finance instructor who used to say "5/3rds of all people just don't get fractions."
I think gamblers feel the same way about handicappers' ratings sometimes.
Why must they be so complicated? The entire point of a rating system is that you know how much a handicapper likes a play in relation to how much you should be wagering on it.
Ah, but there's the rub.
I'm going to rate my plays on a 10-to-100 dime system. Nice and simple, right? An 80 Dimer is twice as strong as a 40 Dimer. A 100 Dimer is a Max Wager and 2 1/2 times stronger than a 40 Dimer.
But how does that correlate to the amount you wager? Well, there are two factors you should consider and only you have those answers:
1 - The size of your bankroll for that given day
2 - Whether you're entering the day on a positive or negative roll
Who is Mitch Newman?
I know I may not look
the type, but looks can be deceiving because I got hooked on this thing called gambling probably from the minute I played my first parlay card in 10th grade.
You remember those little slips from years ago your friends would hand out in class. Pick 4 teams for $1 to win $10.
Did I ever win? Hell no, but that taste was all I needed. I graduated to betting through my first "real" bookie while in college, where I studied business.
You hear a lot about analytics when it comes to managing and coaching teams nowadays. Numbers obviously have a huge impact when it comes to handicapping games and I certainly respect them having a business background. But you can't ignore your gut instinct, your "feel" for a game. It's that blend that's made me successful over the years.
I've used my college degree and worked in the business world, but I eventually gravitated toward the gambling industry, first working as a writer for a couple of national publications/tipsheets and then releasing my own picks to a small following I had built via a phone service. This, however, is the first time I've ever released my plays online to the masses.
Today's Complimentary Play
I was totally off with my 50 Dime release on Miami of Ohio last night, as you cannot cover -31 points when you only score 20 for the game.
Snapped a streak of 4 straight winning days.
I am back tonight on the plus side with this college basketball winner - mark my words.
Winning Day # 5 of 6
Game has not started
Tuesday night it was a 75 Dime winner on Dayton as they took care of business in easy fashion against Nebraska Omaha by 25 points.
I have another easy money winner in the college ranks going out tonight.
Wire-to-wire blowout winner.
My side by 25 points tonight.
This one is easy money.
Indianapolis just posted 33 points with Jacoby Brissett back under center after missing the week prior in a 16-12 home loss to the Miami Dolphins. That 33 points coupled with the 13 points the Colts allowed saw the game land Over the total, as Indy has played 3 of their 5 since their bye-week Over the total, and 6 of their 10 games this year also Over the total. Included is a Week Seven 30-23 Over in the first meeting between these division rivals of the year.
Houston just got blistered for 41 points in their 41-7 humbling at Baltimore that only held Under because of how pathetic the Texans were on offense on Sunday. For the Texans, they have played their last 3 games Under the total, and are on a 6-2-1 Under run overall for their last 9 games in the books.
Indy used their running game -- close to 330 yards rushing! -- to power past the Jaguars on Sunday, and if they can control the clock again with their rushing attack, there is a very strong chance this game lands Under the posted price. The Colts defense has held opponents to 16 points or less in 3 of their last 4 and in 5 of 7 overall.
Prior to their October 20th Over, these teams had played Under the total in 6 of their previous 8 affairs - postseason included, and I feel we are headed towards another Under when you consider that the Texans have held Low in 7 of their last 8 games played in front of the home crowd at NRG Stadium.
Tonight we will get a few turnovers and we will also get a few points posted on the scoreboard - I see them coming in a "flurry", but over the course of these 4 quarters I do not think we are heading Over the total.
Move the Under to 7-3 for the past 10 series meetings after this one goes final.
2♦ INDIANAPOLIS-HOUSTON UNDER
(on a 1♦ to 5♦ basis)