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After six straight days of doing a Video Report, which is a first for me since my surgery back in December, I'm taking the day off. I'll be back on Thursday.

As for the comp plays, I'm on a 516-473-17 roll the past 575 days despite losing last night's play on Richmond. 

For Wednesday's selection I'm heading off to the College Insider Tournament and grabbing the points with Idaho (+5) at Texas State.

I backed the Bobcats in their CIT opener last week against visiting Lamar and they were fortunate to cover as a nine-point chalk against an awful Cardinals team in a 70-60 victory, their sixth straight at home in San Marcos, Texas, which is about 45 minutes or so south of Austin.

Texas State was coming off a Sun Belt Tournament title game loss to Troy - a game in which I backed the Trojans as a free pick - after a stunning 83-62 upset of No. 1 seed and regular season champ Texas-Arlington.

The Bobcats are tenacious on defense; they're ranked 19th in the nation with a per game yield of 63.3 points and hold foes to 41.4 percent shooting. 

Idaho opened the CIT with a 73-50 home rout of Stephen F. Austin. The Big Sky representative held a pretty good Lumberjacks' team to 37 percent shooting and rolled big despite leading scorer Victor Sander (21.1 ppg) being held to just 10 points on 2-for-10 shooting. The 6-5 junior guard had averaged 24 points over the previous 18 games for the Vandals, who have won six of seven and 13 of 17 overall.  

I'm more familiar with Texas State than Idaho and I know the Bobcats are sometimes offensively challenged. I just have a hunch this is going to be a close, back-and-forth game with the score in the high 60's with the dog making sense as the play. Now I don't bet on hunches normally so that's why this is a comp play so take it with a grain of salt.



10 of 15 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)


212-166-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)

with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner

103-74-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009


15 Dime Releases


88-66-3 Record


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Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.


I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.


I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.


Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.


And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:


Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig


Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.


A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.


Let me explain further...


Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.


Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.


Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.


This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.


Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.


Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?


Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

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Help Charity Play of the Week Discount Picks
Time Teams Score Stat Open Hilton Grande Carib CRIS Coast
NBA - NBA - Thursday, March 23, 2017
7:35 PM 801 Toronto
802 Miami
7:35 PM 803 Phoenix
804 Brooklyn
8:35 PM 805 La Clippers
806 Dallas
8:35 PM 807 Memphis
808 San Antonio
10:05 PM 809 New York
810 Portland
NBA - NBA - Friday, March 24, 2017
7:05 PM 851 Brooklyn
852 Washington
7:05 PM 853 Denver
854 Indiana
7:05 PM 855 Cleveland
856 Charlotte
7:05 PM 857 Detroit
858 Orlando
7:35 PM 859 Phoenix
860 Boston
8:05 PM 861 Atlanta
862 Milwaukee
8:05 PM 863 New Orleans
864 Houston
8:05 PM 865 Philadelphia
866 Chicago
10:35 PM 867 Minnesota
868 La Lakers
10:35 PM 869 Sacramento
870 Golden State
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