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MONDAY'S FREE PICK

Cleveland (+1) at TORONTO

Toronto has won six in a row scoring at least 105 points in each outing.

The Raptors are in double-revenge, having lost 121-117 at Cleveland on November 15 and 94-91 at home on October 28.

Cleveland has lost three in a row. The Cavaliers have been beaten badly on the boards in all three losses to the tune of 150-to-116 resulting in 176 points allowed in the paint.

LeBron has committed 20 turnovers during the losing streak.

And despite all that, the Raptors - who are 8-3 at home - are only a one-point chalk?

Can you spell T-R-A-P?

Sometimes a team just has another's number and that's what the Cavs have in this series.

Yes, Cleveland just got hammered on the board by the Bulls, Clippers and Bucks, but the Raptors are not a great rebounding team (7th worst in the league). 

All teams go through lulls, even defending champs. But the question you have to ask yourself here is whether you think the Cavaliers - who have been idle since Friday - are going to lose a fourth straight game?

 


 

10 of 14 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
204-163-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
97-72-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

80-58-3 Record

 


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Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

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Help Charity Play of the Week Discount Picks
Time Teams Score Stat Open Hilton Grande Carib CRIS Coast
NFL - NFL - Monday, December 05, 2016
8:30 PM 377 Indianapolis
378 Ny Jets
41
10

Final
49u15
-1-15
48½
-1½
49o15
-1½-15
48½
-1½
49u15
-1-15
49
-1
NFL - NFL - Thursday, December 08, 2016
8:25 PM 101 Oakland
102 Kansas City
    47
-3-25
47
-3½+ev
 
-3-20
47
-3-25
47
-3-25
47
-3-20
NFL - Week #14 - Sunday, December 11, 2016
1:00 PM 105 Denver
106 Tennessee
     
 
43½
-1½
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1:00 PM 107 San Diego
108 Carolina
    48
-1
48½
-1
 
-1
48
-1
48
-1
48
-1
1:00 PM 109 Houston
110 Indianapolis
     
 

 
 
 
 
 
 

1:00 PM 111 Cincinnati
112 Cleveland
    -5½-15
44u15
-6
43½
 
 
-5½-15
43
-5½-15
44u15
-6
43
1:00 PM 113 Pittsburgh
114 Buffalo
    -1-15
47u15
-1½
47
-2
-2
47
-1-15
47u15
-2½
47½
1:00 PM 115 Arizona
116 Miami
    43
-1
43½
-1

-2
43½
-1
43
-1
43½
-1½
1:00 PM 117 Chicago
118 Detroit
    43½
-8
43½
-8

-8½-05
43½
-9+ev
43½
-8
44
-8½
1:00 PM 119 Minnesota
120 Jacksonville
    -3½
39½
-3½
39
-3½-05
 
-3½
39½
-3½
39½
-3½
39½
4:25 PM 121 New Orleans
122 Tampa Bay
    51½
-2½-15
52
-2½
 
-2½-20
51
-3+ev
51½
-2½-15
51
-2½
1:00 PM 123 Washington
124 Philadelphia
    47u15
pk
-1
46½
 
pk
47u15
pk
47u15
pk
-1
46½
4:05 PM 125 Ny Jets
126 San Francisco
     
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
pk
4:25 PM 127 Seattle
128 Green Bay
    -3+ev
46
-3+ev
46
-3+ev
 
-3+ev
46½
-3+ev
46
-3+ev
46
4:25 PM 129 Atlanta
130 Los Angeles
    -6-15
45o15
-6
45
-5½
 
-6
45
-6-15
45o15
-6
45
8:30 PM 131 Dallas
132 Ny Giants
    -3-25
47½
-3-20
47½
-3-20
 
-3-20
47½
-3-25
47½
-3½+ev
47½
NFL - NFL - Monday, December 12, 2016
8:30 PM 133 Baltimore
134 New England
    45
-7-13
45½
-7-20
 
-7-15
45
-7½-05
45
-7-13
45½
-7½
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