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TUESDAY'S FREE PICKS

Before I get to the selection, a few notes about the NIT.

Once again the powers that be are using the tournament to experiment with a few rule changes. Among them:

The three-point line gets pushed back 1 foot, 4 1/2 inches to the International Basketball Federation range of 22 feet, 1 1/4 inches.

The free throw line has been expanded from 12 to 16 feet.

The 30-second shot clock is reset to 20 seconds after an offensive rebound 

Team fouls are reset at the 10-minute mark of each half

No 1-and-1 free throws; teams shoot two bonus free throws after the fifth team foul of each 10-minute segment

Now for the freebies:


PROVIDENCE (-7) vs. Arkansas

Arkansas center Daniel Gafford has taken a page out of the football playbook and will skip the tournament as he's going pro. The 6-11 sophomore, who is expected to be a first-round pick in this year's NBA draft, was fourth in the SEC in scoring at 16.9 points and second in rebounding at 8.7 and also hit 66 percent of his shots from the field.

This will be the first game the Razorbacks play without him the past two seasons. How do they replace his contributions? Simple, they don't.

According to HoopLens.com, Arkansas outscored their opponents by 206 points with Gafford on the floor. With their big man on the bench the Hogs were outscored by 123 points. 

Providence closed the regular season with an 83-70 win over Butler at home and then beat the Bulldogs again, 80-57, in their Big East Tournament debut at Madison Square Garden before dropping a 73-62 decision to eventual champion Villanova the following day. Now the Friars get to host an Arkansas team - minus its starting center and lone big man - that was only 4-5 on the road this season. 

That's good enough reason for me to lay the points.


COLORADO (-4') vs. Dayton

The NIT, like any tournament other than the Big Dance, is so tricky because you don't know whether a team truly motivated. Colorado coach Tad Boyle thinks his team is excited to be playing because it's young, with no seniors.

If Tad says so, I'll buy in.

The Buffaloes are 13-2 at home (11-4 ATS) and playing in altitude is certainly an advantage. They closed the season with six straight conference wins, beating Oregon by 22, Arizona State by 4, Arizona by 7, Utah by 8, UCLA by 25 and USC by 11.

Granted, it was a lousy year in the Pac-12, but isn't the conference still better than the Atlantic-10?

Dayton was bounced from the A-10 Tournament by St. Louis in the quarterfinals in a 64-55 loss. 

The Flyers have a couple of good post players in freshman Obi Toppin (14.2 ppg) and senior Josh Cunningham (13.6 ppg), although the former did bang up his knee in the St. Louis game and didn't look that good when he returned to action.

Colorado, which beat Cal by five and Oregon State by 15 before blowing a lead and losing to Washington 66-61 in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals, is primarily a three-guard team, but the Buffs do have some size with 6-7 Tyler Bey (13.3 ppg, 9.8 rpb) anchoring the middle.

Dayton is a damn good shooting team (led the A-10 at 50.3 percent), but it's too hard to overlook the Buffs' homecourt advantage.

 


 

12 of 17 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
252-195-14 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
12-7
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past 7 years combined
 

 
134-98-9 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past seven seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

144-112-3 Record

 


Payment Types

Raise the Bar 
20 Dime College Winner # 4 of 5

Nebraska - Butler

Matches last night's 20 Dimer on
Memphis (-6') over San Diego 74-60

28-19 with College Hoops with 15 Dimers 
this season and this play is bigger

144-113-3 with Top-Rated 15 Dimers
in the NBA since 2009
- this play is bigger

134-98-9 with 15 Dimers in the NFL
the past eight seasons following
my Super Bowl Winner on the Patriots
- this play is bigger
 
Winning Day # 142 of 249
Buy Now Buy Now $88
Another 20 Dime Raise the Bar Winner last night as Memphis (-6') opened the NIT with a an easy 74-60 home win over San Diego.

As I said yesterday, most gamblers AND handicappers ignore the NIT, CIT and CBI tournaments the next couple of weeks.

BIG MISTAKE. 

I understand why, however, because gamblers haven't followed many of the "smaller" schools and handicappers are either lazy and don't feel like doing the research on teams they also haven't followed all season or they know they can't sell picks involving these games. 

It's all about finding winners and making money on them and as you've heard me say thousands of times, that's often best accomplished by concentrating the most where the oddsmakers concentrate the least. Trust me, the lines on the Big Dance games the next few weeks are going to be razor sharp. Those on the NIT, College Insider and CBI games? Not so much.

Tonight I've got my Raise the Bar 20 Dime College Winner # 4 of 5 on Nebraska - Butler in NIT first-round action as I get after Winning Day # 142 of 249 overall. 

Prior to hitting Memphis last night I had dropped a 20 Dimer on Houston against Cincinnati on Sunday, but had scored with the previous two, nailing Utah State over San Diego State on Saturday and Wisconsin over Ohio State the previous Sunday.

I'm 28-19 with Top-Rated 15 Dimers in college basketball this season and this play is bigger.

Top-Rated 15 Dimers in the NFL are 134-98-9 the past eight seasons courtesy of New England's Super Bowl victory and this play is bigger.

I'm 144-113-3 with Top-Rated 15 Dimers in the NBA since the 2009 season and this play is bigger.

As for the comp plays, I'm on a 971-944-39 roll the past 1136 days following Tuesday's split (Winner - Colorado, Loser - Providence).

Discount packages

365 PLAYS
Buy Now Buy Now $1,995
365 PLAYS - EVERY SPORT

Best Package Offered

$199 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase



How Do My New Packages Work?

In September of 2018, I decided to change my strategy for releasing plays. Since I created these sites some 15+ years ago, I've had a play every single day. But I changed the way I'm doing things because I feel it will only increase my winning percentage while boosting the value of your package over the short- and long-term.

Previously you purchased a 7, 30, 60 or 100-day package.

Now, however, you purchase 7 plays, 30 plays, 60 plays or 100 plays.

So let me rundown some quick bullet points for you:
  1. One thing that doesn't change: the only game you get is the game I'm playing.
  2. On those days where a card is weak and I just "like" a game, but don't really love it, I'm taking a pass and not issuing a release. In the past I would have released a lower-rated 5 dime play perhaps. Although I certainly won more than my share of them, I believe I can make even more money by avoiding games I like and instead focusing just on those that I love.
  3. So, what happens when I take a pass - which, fyi, will rarely, if ever, be on a Saturday or Sunday or any huge weeknight in hoops - if you have a package? Let me give you an example below:
  4. In the old style packages, you were buying a 30-day package, which meant you got 30 plays in 30 days. Now, however, you buy 30 plays which might be fulfilled over 35 days, or 38 days. You get ALL 30 plays, but it takes more than 30 days because I'm going to be even more selective while trying to boost my winning percentage.
  5. Bottom line: From this point forward when you buy a package from me you're buying 7 Plays, 30 Plays, 60 Plays or 100 Plays - not days - because I want to make every single play count and by being even more selective I believe I can win more with higher-rated selections along the way.
  6. One last thing: you don't have to do anything. The packages will be automatically adjusted whenever I take my first pass and the time will be reflected when you login.
  7. FYI - All the instant rebates still apply as listed below.
100 PLAYS
Buy Now Buy Now $999

100 PLAYS - ALL SPORTS

 

Nothing held back!

 

$149 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

 

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase

60 PLAYS
Buy Now Buy Now $779
60 PLAYS - ALL SPORTS

$100 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
30 PLAYS
Buy Now Buy Now $479
30 PLAYS - ALL SPORTS

Nothing held back!

$50 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
7 PLAYS
Buy Now Buy Now $189

7 PLAYS - EVERY SPORT

UPGRADE DISCOUNTS
 
If you're coming off a 7-day or longer package,
an Instant Rebate is Available on Qualifying Purchases
of 30 Days or Longer
 
 
INSTANT REBATE AMOUNTS
 
Upgrade to a 30-Day Package - Get a $50 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a 60-Day Package - Get a $100 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a 100-Day Package - Get a $149 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a Super Saver Package - Get a $159 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a 365-Day Package - Get a $199 Rebate
 

 

Two Payment Option Available
on any Package of 100 Days or More


1 Day Free Trial
Buy Now Buy Now Free
1 DAY TOTAL ACCESS
Buy Now Buy Now $99
7 DAYS OF TOTAL ACCESS
Buy Now Buy Now $449
30 DAYS OF TOTAL ACCESS
Buy Now Buy Now $999

All Sports Included - Nothing Further to Buy!


(Any "Guarantee" applying to Guaranteed Plays

and Resulting Free Service is NOT included)


Sean Michaels, Jay McNeil, Chuck O'Brien

Matt Rivers, Scott Delaney

Karl Garrett (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays every day


Upgrade From One Package To Another at Anytime

Instant Rebates Available Upon Upgrades!


Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

Who is Al DeMarco?

Been there, done that, seen it all.     

       

That pretty much sums up my 25+ years in this business!     

       

25 years in a business that most guys are lucky to make it 25 months.     

       

The secret to my success? To be honest, there is no one "secret," no magic elixir, but rather a commitment to winning which means a commitment to working 365 days a year.     

       

Being a handicapper is not a part-time job. Now, those of you reading this, the gamblers of this world, I understand that you are not professional gamblers and obviously you do this on recreational basis and cannot devote your life to wagering. But that's what I'm here for; that's what you pay me for.     

       

There are two types of handicappers in this business: The first are great salesmen who excel at separating you from the money in your wallet and could care less about picking winners. The second are guys who know how to make clients money by winning consistently over the long haul through effective money-management techniques and an intuitive sense of knowing when to press and go for the jugular with big plays - especially when your playing with your bookmaker's money.     

       

Listen, in my 25 years in this business I've seen more scam artists and con men than you can believe. A few of these relics - the dinosaurs from the 800 phone room age - are still around trying to make a buck online. You know the type; they tell you something is "absolutely free" with the same conviction that makes you look twice when they claim the sky is blue.     

       

Rest assured, what you see here at my site is what you get. My plays are ONLY available online. And these are the ONLY plays I've got each day. There is no "better" package available at a higher cost like so many other guys offer at their sites or by phone. What you see is what you get; end of story.     

       

No one - and I mean NO ONE - wins every day in this business, and anyone who claims to is a LIAR. As I always tell my clients, I will go on streaks, both good and bad, just like the players and teams I analyze daily. But the key for me - and my customers - is that I expect to turn a net profit for them over the long term. And making money over the course of season or a year, etc., is what matters most.     

       

A little bit more about me....     

 

  • I'm currently the COO and General Manager for the industry's largest group of subscriber-based information websites
  • I hosted The Football Insiders NFL Pregame Show on FoxSports.com from 2007-14
  • I was the featured NFL & College Football Analyst on Comcast SportsNet Chicago and SNY-New York in 2008-10 and on Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia in 2010-11
  • I was a featured contributor at MSNBC.com   
  • I created, hosted and syndicated the national sports talk show The Friday Night Quarterback in 1990-91    
  • I created, published and edited the weekly football newsletter The Players Preference Playbook from 1991-96
  • I was a Contributing Editor at the Sports and Gaming Newswire from 1991-96
  • I was Managing Editor and News Director for the Sports Network Wire Service from 1984-89 where I coordinated the coverage of two Olympic games

Nice resume - and there's a lot more - but the past doesn't count in this business and that's why I laugh when I hear or read about a handicapper bragging about some contest they won 13 years ago. Who cares?       

       

Enough about me because all that really matters is whether I can win more than I lose over the long haul. I'm not here to sell you anything; I'm here to make you money and no one is putting a gun to your head. The decision to let me help you is yours and yours alone.     

 

Tournament Brackets
Free Pick Video
All Access Pass
1 Day of Access $99
7 Days of Access $449
30 Days $999

All Sports Included - Nothing Further to Buy!


(Any "Guarantee" applying to Guaranteed Plays

and Resulting Free Service is NOT included)


Sean Michaels, Jay McNeil, Chuck O'Brien

Matt Rivers, Scott Delaney

Karl Garrett (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays every day


Upgrade From One Package To Another at Anytime

Instant Rebates Available Upon Upgrades!


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