Let's try this again! After firing blanks a couple of Saturdays ago at Churchill Downs, I am aiming for some redemption today at Pimlico in the Preakness Stakes.
I am sure not many folks had Rich Strike in the Kentucky Derby and the derby winner is not headed to post today, as his connections aim him to the Belmont Stakes in a few weeks.
Epicenter is back though, and the odds-on favorite in the Run for the Roses is the odds-on favorite in today's race. With just 9 horses running in this year's run for the Black-Eyed Susan's it would be unwise to rule out this Steve Asmussen-trained horse at this shorter distance and less "congested" field.
Having said that, you cannot rule out the lone filly in the field, Secret Oath who is trained by the veteran Hall-of-Famer D. Wayne Lucas. Secret Oath won the Kentucky Oaks a few weeks back and did finish 3rd running against the boys in the Arkansas Derby. She will also carry 5 fewer pounds than her male counterparts and at this distance, she is certainly a threat end in the winner's circle.
What a great story it would be if Lucas can grab this leg of the Triple Crown.
That leads us to my pick to win this race, and that would be the #5 horse, Early Voting who was eligible for a place in the Kentucky Derby field after claiming the win on the Wood Memorial, but his connections decided their colt was not ready for the race - and personally, in a 20 horse field, I applaud that decision - and pointed their charge towards this race tonight.
Back in 2017 when Cloud Computing picked up the win in the Preakness a similar strategy of skipping the Derby was used to springboard Cloud Computing to the win.
Count me in on Early Voting as the "fresh shooter" to be this year's Preakness winner.
As for your wager? That is totally up to you, but my strategy is usually a cool C-Note across the board - $50 to Win, $25 to place, and $25 to Show on # 5 - Early Voting.
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A word on my rating system and money management:
Money management is entirely up to the individual purchasing my plays. I would never want to tell a client to bet money that is not in their personal budget. I will however tell you how much I like each individual play based upon my rating system. It is entirely up to you - the gambler - to decide how much you wish to wager on each release.
Obviously, the higher the star rating, the higher the wager should be. That being said, I value my 1000♦ release twice as much as my 500♦ release. And a 1500♦ play is three times as strong as a 500♦ selection.
The key here is that you have to determine how much a "betting unit" is worth to you in relation to your bankroll (the amount you can afford to wager) and then stay consistent. For example, if a unit is worth 20 cents, than a 500♦ play is worth $100. And, using that logic a 1000♦ play is worth twice as much, or $200, and so on.
Once again, whatever "unit" system you come up with, stay consistent with how the plays are rated. In other words, go small with the lower rated plays, and increase according to the higher rated stars. "Stars" and "units" should be consistent, the higher the star, the higher your unit of wager.
Thanks, and let's make some money!
I never played pro or college ball.
I never hung out with jocks trying to get the inside scoop on games.
I certainly don't have a degree from MIT in applied mathematics.
But, who really cares?
Let's get to the important stuff:
I played my first football pool when I was 11. I placed my first bet with a bookie at 16. I was a runner in Vegas at 21. And I financed my entire college education through my gambling winnings.
I play every game I release. Some may call me a degenerate, but I call myself an informed investor.
This is my livelihood. I live, breathe, eat and sleep sports and sports handicapping, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. You don't have the time or energy to make that type of investment but I do because for me it's a must if I want to make money. And bottom line - the only reason any of us are gamblers is because we want to make money.
I will shout from the highest mountain when I win. I will cuss out every SOB on the team that costs me money. My goal is to make you money everyday, but you and I both know that's not reality. But, I strive for consistency - that's the key to making money, turning a profit over the long haul, whether that's for the week, month or season.