$10 Bettor Up $29,505 since November
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DOUBLE DOWN THURSDAY
College Football Winner
#6 Out Of 7
( - And 3rd In A Row - )
FOOTBALL WINNER #10 OUT OF 14
No surprise who I am backing tonight.
A pair of 1-4 teams square off tonight and pound for pound, the clear cut right side of this game is the home dog.
Missouri State comes back home after back to back road losses to SMU 34-24 and Western Kentucky 34-13.
I will point out SMU is 4-1 and they hung tough and the Western Kentucky game was 21-13 with 4 minutes to go in the 3rd before the Hilltoppers scored the final 10.
Kennesaw rolls in here off a heartbreaking, gut wrenching loss at home to Jax State and after this game tonight they face Liberty next week!!!!
TALK ABOUT A LOOK AHEAD GAME.
Prior to that loss last week, the Owls were blown out at home by Georgia State 31-17 as a 7 1/2 point favorite, at Tennessee 42-9 and at Arkansas St 17-14.
They struggled to score 14 points against an Arkansas State defense that just gave up 56 to South Alabama.
From an overall body of work standpoint, I wouldn't trust Kennesaw state laying points on the road against anybody. END OF STORY.
Don't be surprised to see this home doggy win the game outright.
THE MONDAY NIGHT KING IS BACK
Now 4-1 On Monday Night’s
75 Dime Bankroll Builder #5 In A Row
Bills (+3’) 37-34 Outright over Rams
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10-4 IN THE NFL THIS YEAR
$10 Bettor Has Made $4,250
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Can't pass up the points.
When it comes to the NFC West, Bills QB Josh Allen has been pure money.
In 9 matchups he is 7-2 SU and ATS.
The 3 times he has gotten points, he is a perfect 3-0 ATS.
Which brings us to tonight.
Now everyone says the Rams have played the tougher schedule but I tend to disagree.
They got destroyed by the Niners 27-7, beat an offensively challenged Giants team at home that lost starting QB Jaxon Dart in the 1st quarter.
Lost at Denver giving up 30 points to an offensively challenged Broncos team.
And had to come back and beat an Eagles team that gave up 27 points to a backup QB in Chicago 2 weeks ago.
Buffalo on the other hand went into Houston and put up 36 on a Texans defense that some expected to be the best in the NFL.
They then came home and hung up 41 on the Lions. They overcame 5 turnovers to come back and beat the Chargers and even cover the 7 1/2 winning 24-16.
Then last week they lost a shootout with a division rival in New England 29-26.
It's because of the loss to the Patriots the value of more than a field goal is created in this game and it's value I will not pass up.
I will gladly take the points in a game I feel will be decided by a field goal.
This doggy barks loud and clear in La La land tonight.
Massive let down spot for the road team here.
When the Minnesota Golden Gophers took their home field last Saturday against Michigan, they did so knowing they hadn't beaten them there since 1977.
We're talking 18 straight home losses including all 3 with head coach P.J Fleck.
And wouldn't you know it, they went out and shocked the world 20-14 and celebrated as if they had won the Super bowl.
Now you want me to believe you are going to roll into Purdue and play with the same intensity???
Just ask Ole Miss how that worked out after beating LSU at home and then went to Florida and got waxed.
Just ask Florida how that worked out after beating Ole Miss at home and then went to Missouri and got waxed.
Both coaches, Pete Golding of the Rebels and Jon Sumrall of the Gators said all the right things in the press all week before the game was played.
And PJ Fleck has done the same this week.
It's very hard for these College kids to get up after huge emotional wins, especially when you have to go on the road.
Now here comes Purdue.
Let me start with the fact they have played a much tougher schedule (#9 vs #99).
Minnesota's other wins have come against Eastern Illinois, Akron and an overrated Washington team that just got boat-raced by Iowa last night at home.
The only "TEAM" they played was Mississippi State at home in week 2 and got absolutely destroyed 38-13.
As for Purdue, their last 4 games have come against 4-1 Wake Forest, 4-0 UCLA, 5-0 Notre Dame and Illinois.
They took Wake to OT at home before losing 38-36, battled the Bruins to a one score game in the 4th quarter but ran out of gas 52-38.
The game against the Irish just got away from them 49-14 and them last week at Illinois was a huge win 24-17.
Minnesota hasn't seen a pass offense like this all year long and trust me when I tell you, this receiving corps of the Boilermakers is no joke.
Nor is Purdue QB Ryan Browne. Look at his numbers.
Home against Indiana St 23 of 29 for 317. Home against Wake 32 of 42 for 329 yards. At UCLA 19 of 30 for 378 yards. Last week at Illinois 18 of 27 for 255.
Notre Dame contained him but trust me folks, Minnesota isn't in the same class as Notre Dame. End of story.
I will be shocked if Purdue doesn't win this game outright.
A 4 TOUCHDOWN UNDERDOG WINNER
Live home dog here.
Now I understand most of the chatter involving this game is the status of Louisville QB Lincoln Kienholz.
He sustained an injury late in the loss to Wake Forest and head coach Jeff Brohm says he is a game time decision.
What that tells me is even if he plays, he won't be 100%.
That is one of the reasons I like the Wolfpack here but not the reason I love the them here.
The reason is this Louisville defense, most notably their secondary, can't stop anyone.
Last week in the loss to the Demon Deacons, they gave up passes of 31, 48 and 77 that were either touchdowns or led to one.
Their pass defense allows over 250 yards per game, tied for 110th in all of College football.
To make matters worse, they will probably be missing starting safety Koen Entringer for the 2nd straight week.
Advantage 3rd year Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey.
NC State rebounded nicely after the Vandy disaster of 2 weeks ago with a feel good win at home last week over Appalachian State 41-31.
Now comes the big one versus the Cardinals.
This is a good matchup for the Wolfpack at home, especially on the offensive side of the football and Sellers is going to have a day against this secondary.
With Louisville 3-11 as conference favorites of less than 10 staring us in the face, all the value in the world resides with the home dog here.
We also have NC State 6-1 ATS the 2nd of 3 straight home games.
This doggy packs a big bite on Saturday.
The absolute best play on the board.
First and foremost, this New England Patriots team as a whole isn't very good.
Last year with the easiest schedule in the NFL, they rode that to the Super bowl.
They shouldn't have been there and they got their asses whooped because of it.
This year they were an offensive embarrassment at Seattle to open the season and lost their best receiver in the process.
Last week at home they beat the Steelers 20-3 but 7 of those 20 were a defensive scoop and score.
In 2 week an offense that has scored 10 and 13 points.
The struggles of QB Drake Maye are obvious as he has passed for 1 touchdown while throwing 4 interceptions.
Could be he is playing behind an average offensive line that will be missing starting right guard Mike Onwenu.
This from a unit that has already given up 6 sacks this year.
At best, this is an average football team that Vegas continues to respect with elite prices.
Big mistake today.
As for the Jags, they absolutely destroyed Deshaun Watson and the Browns in week one 34-10 and were kicking the Broncos ass last week before "it" happened.
The "it", was a terrible pick by Trevor Lawrence that changed the game.
In complete control of the game up 13-6 with 1:42 to go in the 3rd quarter, they faced a 3rd at 6 at midfield when Lawrence got greedy down the left sideline.
The pick at the Bronco 36 ignited a 10 play 64 yard drive and after a missed field goal, Denver went 5 plays 56 yards for the game winning TD.
If Lawrence takes the check down right in front of him for the first down, no doubt in my mind the Jags go on to win that game.
And if that is the case, this line today is 4 1/2 and not the 2 1/2 we are laying.
Bottom line: I trust Trevor Lawrence and head coach Liam Cohen a helluva lot more than Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye. END OF STORY.
Without question Jacksonville is the better team and playing at home in that heat and humidity, that will be the difference in another tough day for Maye.
Be shocked if the Jags don't win this game by double digits.