Pro Football Free Picks
N.Y. Jets at KANSAS CITY (-9')
By Joice Adams, Featured Handicapper
Your Sunday comp play is the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points at home against the New York Jets.
Kansas City is coming off consecutive road losses to Seattle and Denver after opening the season 5-0, and Andy Reid's team has an opportunity to get back on track in front of its home crowd. The Chiefs are 5-2 overall and 3-0 at Arrowhead Stadium, while the 2-6 Jets have dropped three straight games.
Patrick Mahomes remains one of the biggest matchup advantages in football, and he is coming off a strong performance against Denver, completing a game with 321 passing yards and three touchdowns despite the 28-24 defeat.
Mahomes is completing 66.4% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. Kansas City also gets an important boost from the return of Rashee Rice, who caught seven passes for 53 yards and a touchdown against Denver. With Travis Kelce and Rice available, the Chiefs have the receiving weapons to exploit a New York defense that will have its hands full.
The matchup that stands out is Kansas City's ability to pressure Geno Smith and make New York uncomfortable offensively. The Chiefs rank fourth in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 18.7 points per game, and have surrendered only 12 touchdowns through seven games. New York has shown improvement offensively, scoring 25 points against Miami and 33 against Las Vegas, but the Jets will be without their leading receiver, Garrett Wilson, who averages 65.9 receiving yards per game and was officially ruled out with a concussion.
Breece Hall is expected back after missing five games with a quad injury, but returning to the lineup against Steve Spagnuolo's defense is a difficult assignment. Kansas City ranks ninth in yards per play allowed, and its ability to disguise coverages and generate pressure should make it difficult for Smith to maintain the offensive production New York has enjoyed over the last two weeks.
The other important consideration is the ground-game matchup. Kansas City's Kenneth Walker III has rushed for 770 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, and should find opportunities against a Jets defense allowing 123.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks 21st in the league. Walker also gives Reid the option of controlling the tempo and keeping the Jets defense from concentrating entirely on Mahomes.
Although the Jets have been more competitive offensively recently, the absence of Wilson, the Chiefs' defensive advantage and the difference in quarterback play make this a favorable spot for Kansas City. Look for Mahomes and company to take advantage of the home-field setting, get their season back on track and win this one by double digits. Kansas City Chiefs minus the points is the selection.
Las Vegas at SAN FRANCISCO (-9')
By Rick Torino, Featured Handicapper
After delivering on Friday with my 100 Dimer on New Mexico pounding Nevada, I could not follow up on Saturday, as my 100 Dime on Missouri failed late at home against Texas.
Tough one for sure. The Tigers had opportunities to put the Longhorns away, but they did not.
Let's move on to Sunday and this NFC East battle from the City of Brotherly Love.
40 Dime
NFL Winner # 5 of 7
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My comp play for Sunday is the Niners at home to win and cover over the Raiders.
San Francisco returns from its bye week with a 6-1 record and an opportunity to respond to its 29-20 loss to Atlanta. Kyle Shanahan gets several important reinforcements, including the return of Nick Bosa and the addition of DeForest Buckner to an already talented defensive front. The 49ers rank fourth in total defense, allowing 299.9 yards per game, while the Raiders rank 30th, surrendering 381.9 yards.
San Francisco also has the more productive offense,
averaging 28.1 points and 371.4 yards per game. Brock Purdy is completing 69.2%
of his passes with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions, giving the 49ers a
significant advantage at quarterback.
The biggest mismatch is San Francisco's ability to exploit a Las Vegas defense that has struggled to stop both the run and the pass. The Raiders are allowing 28.8 points per game, ranking 31st in the NFL, and have surrendered 30 or more points in five consecutive games. They are also giving up 146.4 rushing yards per contest, which should create opportunities for Christian McCaffrey, who has averaged 4.6 yards per carry and scored eight rushing touchdowns.
McCaffrey practiced in full Friday after dealing with a
hamstring issue, while Bosa also returns to the defensive lineup.
Las Vegas deserves respect after scoring 38 points against
the Jets, with Kirk Cousins throwing three touchdowns, but the Raiders'
defensive shortcomings are a major concern against this San Francisco offense.
The 49ers have won six of their last seven games following a bye, and they have an opportunity to reestablish their dominance at Levi's Stadium.
Expect Shanahan to establish McCaffrey early and let Purdy take advantage of the opportunities that follow.
Take the San Francisco 49ers to win
convincingly and cover the points.
Houston (-6) at LA CHARGERS
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
Sunday's freebie is the Houston Texans over the Los Angeles
Chargers on Sunday at SoFi Stadium.
Houston comes off its bye week with an opportunity to get its season moving in the right direction against the only winless team in the NFL. The Chargers are 0-7 and have lost 10 consecutive games dating back to last season.
More concerning is their offensive production: Los Angeles has
gone 27 consecutive drives without a touchdown and has scored just nine points
in each of its last two games. Justin Herbert has thrown a league-leading 10
interceptions and been sacked 23 times. That is a dangerous combination against
a Houston defense that has the personnel to dictate this matchup.
The biggest advantage belongs to Houston's defensive front. Will Anderson Jr. has 7.5 sacks, tied for the NFL lead, while the Texans have recorded 21 sacks and rank among the league's best in quarterback pressure.
The Chargers have struggled to protect Herbert behind an inexperienced offensive line, and that matchup could determine the outcome.
Houston also has a
significant advantage in ball security, having committed just three turnovers
all season. C.J. Stroud has thrown 11 touchdown passes against only one
interception, giving the Texans a much more dependable passing attack despite
some inconsistency in recent weeks.
The additional preparation coming off the bye should also benefit DeMeco Ryans and his defense. Although Houston will be without running back David Montgomery and safety Reed Blankenship, the Texans have enough defensive talent to exploit the Chargers' protection problems and force Herbert into difficult situations.
The Chargers are running out of answers offensively, and until they demonstrate an ability to consistently protect Herbert and finish drives, it is difficult to justify backing them. Expect Houston to control the line of scrimmage, create turnovers and take advantage of a struggling opponent.
Take the Houston Texans to win and cover.
Green Bay at NEW ENGLAND (44')
By Craig Richman, Featured Handicapper
Play the Packers and the Patriots to stay UNDER the posted total.
This matchup features two defenses that have been playing consistent football, and the numbers support a lower-scoring afternoon at Gillette Stadium. Green Bay has allowed just 14.6 points per game over its last five contests, holding opponents to 14, 7, 13, 20 and 19 points.
The Packers rank 10th in total defense, allowing 314.9 yards per game, while New England ranks eighth, surrendering 309.9 yards per contest. The Patriots are also allowing just 20.3 points per game, ninth-best in the NFL. Both defenses have demonstrated the ability to make opposing offenses work for their yards, and this is a matchup where sustained drives and points could be difficult to come by.
Green Bay's defensive improvement is particularly important against Drake Maye and a New England offense that has shown an ability to produce explosive plays. The Packers have held five consecutive opponents to 20 points or fewer.
Maye has struggled against several comparable defenses, completing 63.8% of his passes with one touchdown and six interceptions against Seattle, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. New England also has some personnel concerns, with wide receiver A.J. Brown ruled out, TreVeyon Henderson ruled out and tight end Hunter Henry dealing with a foot injury.
The other significant factor is Green Bay's inability to consistently establish its running game. The Packers are averaging just 60.6 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry, both ranking last in the league. New England's run defense has been considerably better, allowing just 92.6 rushing yards per game, sixth-best in the NFL.
That combination could force Jordan Love into another pass-heavy afternoon against a New England defense that has recorded 22 sacks this season.
This has the makings of a physical, defensive contest rather than a shootout. Look for both teams to have difficulty sustaining scoring drives, making the UNDER the selection.