College Football Free Picks
East Carolina (-4') at UAB
By Sean Michaels, Featured Handicapper
I am going to lay the road wood with surging East Carolina
at UAB tonight.
After consecutive losses to open the season, East Carolina has won three straight, including last Saturday’s 28-12 victory over Rice.
The
Pirates overcame a third-quarter deficit and finished strongly, reinforcing the
improvement shown since Emory Williams took over at quarterback. The first
meeting between these programs since November 2013 also gives this matchup a
different feel from a familiar conference rivalry.
The bigger advantage for East Carolina is its defense against a UAB offense that has struggled to sustain production through the air. The Blazers appeared to be in position for a quality road result at Memphis, taking a 13-10 halftime lead before committing costly turnovers and getting outscored 28-0 in the second half of a 38-13 defeat.
UAB is averaging just 155.8 passing yards per game, and the
offensive line has surrendered 16 sacks, the most in the American Conference.
East Carolina, meanwhile, ranks first nationally with 10.2 tackles for loss per
game and has allowed only one passing touchdown this season. That defensive
pressure could make life difficult for quarterback Ryder Burton and force UAB
into unfavorable passing situations.
East Carolina’s recent defensive performances and improving
running game led by TJ Engleman Jr. who has averaged 121 rushing yards per game
during the three-game winning streak, sets up nicely in this conference road
battle.
East Carolina’s ability to pressure the quarterback, defend the run and capitalize on mistakes bodes well for a road win and cover under the Thursday night lights in this AAC battle.
Lay it with the Pirates.
Colorado State at TEXAS STATE (70')
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
Colorado State and Texas State have put together an impressive run of high-scoring games, and despite a big Friday night total, the over is worth a look.
The Rams have played all five games this season over the
posted total and have now gone over in seven straight dating back to last
season. Texas State has also been an over team, cashing in four of its five
games this season, including each of its last three. Those trends are backed by
offensive production and defensive struggles on both sides.
Colorado State is averaging 37.4 points and 448.4 yards per
game, including 273.2 passing yards and 175.2 rushing yards. The Rams have
scored at least 23 points in every game this season, including 45 against UTSA
and 26 against Oregon State in their last two outings. Texas State has allowed
300.4 passing yards per game, creating a favorable matchup for a Colorado State
offense that has demonstrated the ability to produce through the air.
The Bobcats have enough offensive firepower to do their share of the scoring. Texas State is averaging 34.8 points and 531.6 total yards per game, and quarterback Brad Jackson threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns in the recent 31-29 loss to San Diego State. The Bobcats have topped 500 yards of offense in each of their last three games, while Colorado State hits the road allowing 38.6 points per game.
Texas State is surrendering 33.2. Both defenses have shown vulnerabilities that could keep the scoreboard busy. The posted total is high, but the combination of explosive offenses and struggling defenses makes the over my play.